It’s difficult to keep up with the news this year. Oh, you noticed? I wouldn’t blame you if you’ve given yourself permission to detach from daily updates about the world as a way to preserve your mental health. I understand there’s a lot of that going around now. I’m sorry to intrude, seriously, but you need to know this.

In the past few weeks there have been credible reports of a shift in US policy – a stand-down in both offensive and defensive preparations against Russian cyberattacks.

“Abyss gaze” is a useful term for the depression that settles in when you pick a trend and study it closely and discover that there is no hope for humanity. It happens regardless of what aspect of the future you study – climate change, drone warfare, or genetic engineering, say. When you look at the details of any of them, we’re in far worse shape than you realized and experts are terrified.

So it goes with cybersecurity. I’m going to describe a single swirling bit of flotsam that you might have missed in the onrushing flood of Terrible Things. I’ve spent a lot of time studying cybersecurity and this will have you gazing into the abyss.

Modern geopolitical combat frequently happens now in the digital realm. For years Russia has been a formidable and persistent adversary in this unseen battlefield. From large-scale espionage campaigns to disruptive attacks on critical infrastructure, the history of Russian cyber operations against the United States paints a clear picture of a determined foe with sophisticated capabilities.

Let’s go through a brief history of Russian cyberattacks against the US in the past ten years. With that context, I’ll tell you about the recent orders that have caused security experts to hyperventilate and openly weep.

Cyber warfare is the modern equivalent of the global arms race from the 1950s to the 1990s. If the bits start flying, a cyber war has the potential to be just as destructive as a nuclear war. Modern life depends on our networks to power our electrical grid, run the hospitals, keep infrastructure working, and coordinate the supply chain that brings us food and water and clothes.

Our military leaders and intelligence agencies spend more time and resources on cyber battles than any of us realize. Every year intelligence agencies prepare a global “Threat Assessment” for Congress; cyberattacks have been the number one threat on the list for many years. The fear of devastating cyberattacks is at the center of American defense strategy. It is arguably more important to our decision-makers than anything to do with conventional warfare.

The Russian government is known to have been responsible for many cyberattacks against the US, the Ukraine, and the rest of the world. Russian hacking teams working at the direction of Putin and the Russian government are very skilled and effective.

The following is just a few of the Russian cyberattacks that made the news. There have been other major intrusions – like the attack on security and monitoring firm Kaseya in 2021 that deployed ransomware into thousands of business networks – that were likely not directly controlled by Putin but operated with his blessing.

SOLARWINDS

One of the most dangerous cyberattacks of all time was carried out by an elite Russian intelligence agency working for the Russian government. Beginning in March 2020, Russian hackers infected the software updates issued by the enterprise division of Solarwinds, which makes critical network monitoring software used by government agencies, hundreds of Fortune 500 companies, and firms that oversee critical infrastructure, including the power grid. Once they rode the Solarwinds updates into the networks, the Russian hackers leveraged their initial access by installing additional backdoors and malware in the affected systems.

Thomas Bossert, homeland security adviser to President Trump and deputy homeland security adviser to President George W. Bush, described our exposure this way:

“The logical conclusion is that we must act as if the Russian government has control of all the networks it has penetrated. But it is unclear what the Russians intend to do next. The access the Russians now enjoy could be used for far more than simply spying.

“The actual and perceived control of so many important networks could easily be used to undermine public and consumer trust in data, written communications and services. In the networks that the Russians control, they have the power to destroy or alter data, and impersonate legitimate people. Domestic and geopolitical tensions could escalate quite easily if they use their access for malign influence and misinformation — both hallmarks of Russian behavior.”

Want more info? I wrote a five-part series about The Great Russia Hack in 2021.

DNC HACK

Prior to Solarwinds, the 2016 hacking of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the emails of John Podesta demonstrated Russia’s willingness to interfere in the US political process. By obtaining and leaking sensitive information, Russia sought to sow discord and influence the presidential election.

UTILITY HACKS

Evidence emerged that Russian code was implanted in US electric utilities prior to 2018, creating the potential for future attacks aimed at crippling essential services, echoing Russia’s demonstrated ability to shut down portions of Ukraine’s power grid.

NOTPETYA

The NotPetya malware attack in 2017, while primarily targeting Ukraine, also spread globally, causing billions of dollars in damages to businesses worldwide, including in the US.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions. This information came from a report by The Record, a cybersecurity publication. The Washington Post and The New York Times also added their own confirmations of this order based on unnamed officials. This instruction was reportedly given to Cyber Command chief Gen. Timothy Haugh, who then informed the organization’s outgoing director of operations, Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Ryan Heritage.

There has also been reporting in the last two weeks suggesting that the US is shifting away from actively addressing Russia as a cyber threat in 2025. These reports primarily concern the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

According to The Guardian, a recent memo at CISA reportedly set out new priorities that included China and protecting local systems but did not mention Russia. A person familiar with the matter stated that analysts at CISA were verbally informed that they were not to follow or report on Russian threats, even though this had previously been a main focus. The person also said that work being done on something “Russia-related” was effectively “nixed.”

A reduction in offensive cyber operations against Russia could allow Russian threat actors to operate with less fear of retaliation or disruption. This could embolden them to conduct more aggressive espionage, reconnaissance, and even pre-positioning for future disruptive attacks on US critical infrastructure.

Similarly, a deprioritization of Russia as a cyber threat within CISA could lead to reduced vigilance in monitoring and defending against Russian intrusions. If analysts are no longer actively tracking Russian activities or sharing intelligence related to them, vulnerabilities might go unnoticed, and attacks could be more successful.

We might all be doomed.

Imagine that you are reading a thriller. This is just hypothetical, nothing to be offended about, it’s just a novel that you might find on airport racks or maybe a movie with Tom Cruise.

This is the plot.

In the late 1980s, the KGB embarks on a daring and insidious operation. Their target: not a spy, but an American businessman named Edward Stanton, a man driven by ambition and easily swayed by flattery. Recognizing his potential, Vladimir Putin initiates a long-term, clandestine project to subtly shape Stanton’s trajectory, manipulating his ego and subtly guiding his decisions. It begins with seemingly innocuous favors, bolstering his business ventures and whispering strategic advice, all while remaining completely unseen.

As Stanton’s confidence grows, so does his influence. The Russians, through carefully placed leaks and orchestrated events, subtly elevate his public image, nudging him towards a political career. They provide discreet financial backing, smooth over potential scandals, and manipulate US public opinion. Stanton, believing his success is solely his own, becomes a rising star, attracting attention and climbing the political ladder with remarkable speed.

Unbeknownst to Stanton, every step of his ascent is carefully orchestrated. Russia’s influence permeates his inner circle, shaping his policies and subtly steering him towards decisions that benefit Russian interests. The ultimate goal: to place Stanton in the Oval Office, transforming him into a puppet president, a figurehead controlled by the Kremlin. The operation, a testament to Putin’s patient and manipulative tactics, aims to achieve the unthinkable: to undermine the very foundation of American democracy from within.

With Stanton ensconced in the Oval Office, Russia’s long game begins to bear fruit. Stanton, influenced by Putin and his handlers, pursues policies that weaken alliances with traditional US partners, sowing discord and distrust within the Western bloc. Simultaneously, he champions economic initiatives that favor Russian interests, opening American markets to Russian goods while imposing tariffs on competitors. Stanton’s administration also proves surprisingly acquiescent to Russian foreign policy objectives, turning a blind eye to human rights abuses and backing down from confrontations that could challenge Russian ambitions. As Stanton’s presidency progresses, the US drifts further from its traditional role as a global leader, leaving a vacuum of power that the Russians eagerly exploit.

ESSAY QUESTION

With that in mind, consider these allegations about Donald Trump from the real world that we live in.

Alnur Mussayev, the former head of Kazakhstan’s intelligence service, claimed in a detailed Facebook post that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 during his first visit to Moscow.

Former KGB major Yuri Shvets made similar assertions several years ago. He is a primary source for Craig Unger’s best-selling book American Kompromat: How the KGB Cultivated Donald Trump, and Related Tales of Sex, Greed, Power, and Treachery.

Another former KGB officer, Sergei Zhyrnov, categorically endorsed Mussayev’s allegations in an interview with a Ukrainian journalist.

If you do not believe that Donald Trump is an active Russian agent, describe any evidence that reality differs from the fictional plot of the thriller described above.

The evidence that it’s true is overwhelming. It’s every single thing that Trump has done since 1987, and specifically all of his actions since taking office (including the cybersecurity stand-down described above), which are inexplicable – unless he is an active Russian agent.

So go ahead, write down the evidence that it’s not true, other than rote denials.

If you find yourself staring at a blank sheet of paper, unable to come up with anything, you know where to find me. I’ll be at the abyss, staring over the edge into darkness.